Thanks for providing so many facts supporting your forecasts. You make a good case.
May I suggest looking more closely at Poland, which has the most to lose in terms of population and real estate, should your forecasts come true?
Also, could this apparent culmination instead escalate, as did WWI and WWII, with combatants from several EU nations arriving?
Also, while Trump is terrified of Russia's alleged nuclear weapons, he's also pursuing an Iron Dome for the US. His tech bro buddies are building or have built techniques for coming out OK from a nuclear war, should Russia get around to remanufacturing its old Soviet warheads, which are past their use-by dates. So if the EU could enable Ukraine to hold out two more years or so, Trump might change his mind. Or he and Vance could be shown the door after the midterms, then what? Richard Nixon and his VP both lost power with surprising speed. Could Putin suddenly be toppled?
Comparison class: As WWI was culminating, Germany was nearly at the peak of its control of French territory. French soldiers were refusing to fight and fleeing. Yet a tipping point came with German soldiers having run out of clean water and food, footgear ruined, collapsing drunk in French cellars. The seeming dominance of Germany at the culmination of WWI led to the "stab in the back" theory, hence Hitler. How much effect did the entry of British and US soldiers have? Might entry of French, German and/or Polish soldiers have a similar game changing effect in Ukraine?
Another comparison class: In the run-up to WWII, Great Britain kept on accepting Hitler's land grabs and Hitler's attempts to make an alliance with it -- until Churchill gained power.
What if Japan hadn't hit Hawaii? Without the US entry in WWII, would Hitler have built an enduring European empire? Without heroic efforts by the US to supply Stalin, would even the USSR have fallen? I can't imagine Russia or China daring a Pearl Harbor event.
Hey Carolyn, so great to hear from you and glad you enjoyed the article. Hope you've been well!
With regards to your points:
1) I think looking at Poland's future could be interesting, assuming I get time to spend some real thought there. Some initial thoughts are: a) for however bleak and grim it is, Poland has net-benefited in terms of population so far in this war. b) I'm not sure how different the odds are for (Russia marches onto Poland next) and (Poland somehow gets Western Ukrainian lands in a complete collapse of Ukraine scenario) barring Poland interjecting itself directly into this conflict first. c) if it ends like I think, Poland is still very far from Russia, with Ukraine still in-between.
2) Yes, it very much could. That's the "fat-tailed outcome I’d rather not say" lol. Barring the war going nuclear, I don't see how this does anything other than delay the inevitable OR perhaps mitigate Ukraine's losses, but at great cost to Europe, unless Turkey or the US are seriously involved too. I doubt it as they both have other things more pressing.
3) I think our ground-based nukes are probably in an equivalent or worse state than Russia's. We clearly have an edge in subs. Idk about the rest. Do you really want to test that? Over Ukraine? And an iron dome is going to take time. We might have something online in 24 months, but would you want to risk everyone's life on it? I don't think this is particularly serious, unless Europe does most of the bleeding over those 24 months...and even then.
4) How will Russians react, when NATO troops arrive to fight them? After Putin said that was the goal of this thing from the start and the West said "no it isn't". Could that not motivate the Russians? How motivated will European troops be when they experience the Donbas front (or wherever the front-line may be when they enter)?
5) I don't think 3 years of heavy fighting on the Donbas is the same as 1933-1939, but okay.
6) Idk, the Soviets probably would've won the war anyways but it would've taken longer? Would the US really stay out of WW2 because no Pearl Harbor? Would we have stopped Lend-Lease at some point? How much did the USSR produce on its own? Could Stalingrad have fallen? Maybe? Would that have meant the end of the USSR? I don't think so.
Thanks for providing so many facts supporting your forecasts. You make a good case.
May I suggest looking more closely at Poland, which has the most to lose in terms of population and real estate, should your forecasts come true?
Also, could this apparent culmination instead escalate, as did WWI and WWII, with combatants from several EU nations arriving?
Also, while Trump is terrified of Russia's alleged nuclear weapons, he's also pursuing an Iron Dome for the US. His tech bro buddies are building or have built techniques for coming out OK from a nuclear war, should Russia get around to remanufacturing its old Soviet warheads, which are past their use-by dates. So if the EU could enable Ukraine to hold out two more years or so, Trump might change his mind. Or he and Vance could be shown the door after the midterms, then what? Richard Nixon and his VP both lost power with surprising speed. Could Putin suddenly be toppled?
Comparison class: As WWI was culminating, Germany was nearly at the peak of its control of French territory. French soldiers were refusing to fight and fleeing. Yet a tipping point came with German soldiers having run out of clean water and food, footgear ruined, collapsing drunk in French cellars. The seeming dominance of Germany at the culmination of WWI led to the "stab in the back" theory, hence Hitler. How much effect did the entry of British and US soldiers have? Might entry of French, German and/or Polish soldiers have a similar game changing effect in Ukraine?
Another comparison class: In the run-up to WWII, Great Britain kept on accepting Hitler's land grabs and Hitler's attempts to make an alliance with it -- until Churchill gained power.
What if Japan hadn't hit Hawaii? Without the US entry in WWII, would Hitler have built an enduring European empire? Without heroic efforts by the US to supply Stalin, would even the USSR have fallen? I can't imagine Russia or China daring a Pearl Harbor event.
Hey Carolyn, so great to hear from you and glad you enjoyed the article. Hope you've been well!
With regards to your points:
1) I think looking at Poland's future could be interesting, assuming I get time to spend some real thought there. Some initial thoughts are: a) for however bleak and grim it is, Poland has net-benefited in terms of population so far in this war. b) I'm not sure how different the odds are for (Russia marches onto Poland next) and (Poland somehow gets Western Ukrainian lands in a complete collapse of Ukraine scenario) barring Poland interjecting itself directly into this conflict first. c) if it ends like I think, Poland is still very far from Russia, with Ukraine still in-between.
2) Yes, it very much could. That's the "fat-tailed outcome I’d rather not say" lol. Barring the war going nuclear, I don't see how this does anything other than delay the inevitable OR perhaps mitigate Ukraine's losses, but at great cost to Europe, unless Turkey or the US are seriously involved too. I doubt it as they both have other things more pressing.
3) I think our ground-based nukes are probably in an equivalent or worse state than Russia's. We clearly have an edge in subs. Idk about the rest. Do you really want to test that? Over Ukraine? And an iron dome is going to take time. We might have something online in 24 months, but would you want to risk everyone's life on it? I don't think this is particularly serious, unless Europe does most of the bleeding over those 24 months...and even then.
4) How will Russians react, when NATO troops arrive to fight them? After Putin said that was the goal of this thing from the start and the West said "no it isn't". Could that not motivate the Russians? How motivated will European troops be when they experience the Donbas front (or wherever the front-line may be when they enter)?
5) I don't think 3 years of heavy fighting on the Donbas is the same as 1933-1939, but okay.
6) Idk, the Soviets probably would've won the war anyways but it would've taken longer? Would the US really stay out of WW2 because no Pearl Harbor? Would we have stopped Lend-Lease at some point? How much did the USSR produce on its own? Could Stalingrad have fallen? Maybe? Would that have meant the end of the USSR? I don't think so.